On our way to the Cataract Ridge trailhead, we couldn’t help but notice the forest around the Rio Grande Reservoir was, well, dead. The devastation was nearly complete, much like the forests to the north around Summit County and Winter Park, where Pine Beetles have made the entire forest brown with dead trees.

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The problem in the southern part of the state in the Rio Grande Forest turns out to be the Spruce Beetle. This insect attacks primarily Engelmann Spruce, though it will occasionally infest Blue Spruce as well. After the beetle does its damage, we’re left with a forest which isn’t just unsightly, but also a forest fire waiting to happen, and those trees eventually start falling down.

We’ve been incredibly lucky here in the Elks, dodging both beetle outbreaks… so far. Of course, the Aspen trees around here are dying, too- due to what is known as “Sudden Aspen Decline”, or SAD.

They say these phenomena are natural, occurring every century or two or three. The drought years we’ve experienced are certainly a likely trigger, as are warming temperatures. That doesn’t make the thought of stark hillsides with nothing but dead trees and sagebrush any more cheery. I guess it’s just one more reason to hope for a big winter this season.

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Anyone trying to play in Colorado’s mountains in the last couple of weeks has probably been a bit frustrated by the weather. A shift in the flow to the south and southwest, carrying copious amounts of tropical moisture, has created a classic wet monsoonal weather pattern. In some cases, these heavy rains have even caused flooding and landslides, as seen here on the Durango-Silverton train route:

A recent internet discussion finally confirmed a few things for me which I had long wondered about. NWS weather forecasts mention a probability % of rain or snow on most days, but what does that mean? As it turns out, a 70% chance of rain means that if you had 10 nearby weather stations, 7 of them would record measurable precipitation, and 3 would not. It does not mean that there is a 70% chance of rain, and a 30% chance of no rain. Here is what Stan of the Pueblo NWS office had to say: Part of the confusion is due to (IMO) an unfortunate policy of the NWS to mix Probability with Spatial characteristics in defining what constitutes a POP. For example, usually in the first 12-24 hours, for thunderstorms, the 3% or 60% refers to a spatial distribution So, if there is a 30% chance of rain for the Sangres for example, that means that 30% of that total area will see measurable rain, the rest will stay dry. (In contrast, a probability forecast of 30% would suggest that 3 out of 10 times its going to rain over the whole area. Confusing, if you ask me. Regardless, either way there is a 30% chance if you are in that area of seeing rain. What bugs me is when I see statements to the effect of “Well, the forecast called for 30% chance of rain, but it poured all night, so the forecast was wrong” THAT is wrong. First off, that person is not looking at a map of rain gauges, or a radar image of accumulated precipitation, so he/she has no clue what percentage of the area got rainfall. Rainfall in rugged terrain is extremely variable, it can be pouring in one location but totally dry a mile away. Of course, the complainer never recalls the 7 out of 10 times that it was dry when the forecast was for 30%–he/she only recalls the time it poured. If, like me, you were forced to actually look at the hard data for verification, you would see that the forecast, over time, is statistically quite good, better than you might expect. In short, it’s not something to ignore.

Another interesting tidbit from Stan: As an experienced climber (not much of late due to a bad back) I am fully aware of how radically different weather conditions can be in the alpine zone. Weather forecasting is largely a matter of applying personal experience to scientific data, so someone with the personal experience of relying on forecasts for ventures above 12000 feet is going to have a better understanding of the rules that apply there. Since we (NWS) are a team of forecasters (10+ per office) and offices (4 in Colorado, numerous surrounding) the forecast is a collaborative effort and sometimes it goes the way of the “lowest common denominator”. In other words, if from ones personal experience one knows that the chance of it raining in the mountains is 80+ percent, unfortunately if the other forecasters don’t have that experience and think it will be lower, to maintain a consistent product sometimes the compromise results in a ‘watered’ down forecast (pun intended). That is probably why some of you in the thread i referenced note that POP (Probability Of Precipitation) forecasts are sometimes underdone for the summer monsoon season–the same is true during orographic (terrain-driven) snow events in the mountains. I can’t tell you how many times Ive been up at 10K+ feet in the Winter, and it’s dumping like mad, chains required, when the official (sometimes mine!) forecast calls for 20 percent chance of snow or some similar smallish number.

This quote confirmed some of my other observations as a keen weather observer (at least in the winter, when my mind constantly thinks SNOW!). It can be quite informative to look at two nearby forecasts, each forecast coming from a different office (i.e. Grand Junction, Pueblo, Boulder, as Colorado examples) Even if they are just a mile apart and similar in elevation and aspect, the forecast are often quite dissimilar. Sounds to me that different forecasts can easily be chalked up to differences of opinion in the forecast offices.

Hopefully that clears a few things up for people, as there is certainly a bit of confusion on the subject. Weather forecasts for the Crested Butte area can always be found on the right sidebar here on 14erskiers. The weather for the next week looks good, by the way, so get out there!

Last week, we once again lost a good friend to the mountains, this time Lacy Meadows. His passing brought back many memories of Jack Hannan’s tragic accident just a few months ago. In particular, I kept thinking of a day last spring when I had a chat with a bird while climbing Mount Wilson.

“A chat with a bird, you say? What a hippy!” Well, here’s the story. A raven was flying overhead, soaring along a nearby ridge, when he decided to land near me, just 15 feet away. I was reminded of the movie Steep, and the part when the late great Doug Coombs discusses seeing black birds in the Alps, and they represent his fallen friends who passed away in the mountains. So I kept climbing, and this bird started walking with me, always no more than 15 feet away. I was a bit ahead of Brittany at that time, so it was just me and this bird, walking up towards the pass. Well, I decided right than and there that that bird was Jack, so we had a little talk. It was reassuring to know that Jack was there with us on a difficult peak, showing us the way and leading us to the top of a difficult peak. I’m not spiritual by any means, but there was something about that bird and thinking about Jack that I won’t soon forget. I look forward to seeing Lacy soaring above me on a fine mountain day in the future, and having a little talk with him too.

Miss you Lacy

In the wake of another fatal accident on Little Bear Peak, I’ve thought a lot about the current standard route on that peak: The Hourglass couloir. For skiers like Brittany and I, the Hourglass route is straightforward enough; just your standard Colorado couloir, somewhere in the 40-45 degree range, and actually pretty short at less than 1,000′. For summer climbers of the 14ers, Little Bear via the Hourglass may be the most dangerous 14er of them all, although Long’s Peak has been the most deadly by numbers alone. Once free of snow, the Hourglass route becomes a funnel for rockfall from the loose ledges above, and often forms a thin coat of verglas (ice) in the early morning. Having climbed Little Bear and all the other fourteeners in summer, Little Bear is probably the one peak that I would be quite concerned to climb again, mostly because of the danger other climbers would pose as they climbed above, possibly knocking rocks down on me.

Little Bear wasn’t always like this. Through the 60’s, the standard route was on the other side of the mountain from Blanca Basin through private property, and is mentioned in Gerry Roach’s guidebook as the easiest route. Unfortunately access through this area was dependent on one the Sangre’s many HUGE ranches for access, and once they decided to close off access, the Hourglass became the route of choice for peak baggers.

Private property is just that- private- and people are certainly free to choose what to do with their land. In today’s litigious society, many landowners choose to bar access from trails, climbing areas, skiing, etc out of fear from lawsuits when people are injured on their land. So I had a crazy thought after the most recent accident on Little Bear: What if the landowners in Blanca Basin were sued not because somebody was injured on their land, but injured elsewhere avoiding the privately closed safest route. Yeah, I know- it isn’t realistic and it would open a Pandora’s box of unintended consequences. But I do think the landowners who have chosen to close access to Blanca Basin should be ashamed and should feel guilty each and every time someone is killed or injured on the dangerous Hourglass route.

Recently, a sad event on Little Bear Peak highlighted one of the many potential problems with the SPOT device. Condolences go out to the friends and family of Kevin Hayne.

SPOT’s, for those of you who don’t know, are a brand of locator beacon which can be used to let friends and family track your location in the backcountry, or more importantly as a device to send an SOS signal when something goes wrong. Unlike a cell phone, the SPOT uses satellites to relay messages to Search and Rescue (SAR) teams when the help button is pushed, making them ideal for backcountry travelers. This all sounds good in theory, but the Little Bear accident and another one in Rocky Mountain National Park make me wonder.

On Little Bear, after Mr. Hayne fell, his partner attempted to initiate a rescue using not one, but two SPOT Messengers. From Kevin’s partner on 14ers.com: “When i got to him he was breathing heavily and both him arms looked broken, both of our spot trackers malfunctioned at a terrible time. I waited 30 minutes by chance that the distress signal did go out, tried to comfort Kevin, and after no response from either Kevin or SaR.”

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